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RTM
04-24-2019 at 09:23 AM
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Avengers: Endgame - My Prediction...on Gate Receipts

I'm sure that a good number of us will see this film at some point as it is arguably one of the most anticipated film sequels of all time, even more so than a "Star Trek III: the Search for Spock" was when the possibility of the deceased "Mr Spock" character coming back was clear. And I daresay this film is more anticipated than "T2: Judgment Day" was back in 1992 even though initial audience reaction to the worldwide release of the teaser trailer was phenomenal back then.

I have to say that not since the release of James Cameron's "Avatar" has a film been awaited with so much anticipation and fanfare.

My prediction...opening weekend take (worldwide)...$750-900 million for sure with the possibility of even higher receipts now that I read how some theatres are going to keep open for 72 straight hours showing this film.

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  1. Joonas's Avatar

    I'm more anticipating the new "Joker" film, you know, a character that has actually some depth unlike Thanos...

  2. RTM's Avatar

    Be careful what you wish for...Joaquin Phoenix is known for some quirky behaviour -

    He's nowhere NEAR as odd as Crispin Glover, but close -

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  3. Joonas's Avatar

    I wonder if the corporate Mouse will also fake Endgame ticket sales, like he did for Captain Feminist.

    Disney bought seats to Captain Marvel just to make its ticket sales look better; there were multiple reports of prebought tickets that were never used and the theaters were empty...wonder why that is. Absolutely disgusting what Disney thinks they can get away with. Also, on several websites negative reviews of the film were removed to protect the film, who cares about freedom of opinion?

    How someone still supports this company is beyond me.

  4. RTM's Avatar

    "House of Mouse" is not what it used to be. Currently it is the world's largest intellectual property rights holder and all that is missing from its portfolio is the DC Comics roster...there is really not much else of major market value out there in terms of intellectual property rights relating to characters that they do not already own.

    Just watch...ticket sales will be through the roof and yet the film will inexplicably be operating at a LOSS when all the "creative accounting" is done...that's how "Coming to America" grossed $300M worldwide and still lost money.

    Ticket purchases can be categorized as advertising campaign expenses and amortized over time. It's an accounting gimmick.

    For a film as widely anticipated as this one is, there is NO need whatsoever to have a 9-digit promotional advertising budget...and yet films of this magnitude often do. Complete waste of money as fans know QUITE well when the movie is coming out.

  5. RTM's Avatar

    Amusingly "analysts" are only now predicting receipts of $800 million...whereas little old mois predicted $750-900 several weeks ago on one of the earlier related wall posts by another gamer.

    Maybe I should be an "analyst" ?

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/25/media/avengers-endgame-opening-night/index.html

    "Analysts have said that "Endgame" could make north of $260 million this weekend in North America, with some who are predicting as much as $300 million. Globally, some analysts say it could make more than $800 million. "

  6. Blackflag82's Avatar

    Quote Originally Posted by Joonas

    Disney bought seats to Captain Marvel just to make its ticket sales look better; there were multiple reports of prebought tickets that were never used and the theaters were empty...

    got a source on this? Like an actual verifiable source, not just a reddit post or blog?


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  7. RTM's Avatar

    Would like to see that as well BUT I happen to know for a fact that in Major League Baseball when the PSL (personal seat license) nonsense started there were a BUNCH of unsold seats at the new NY Yankees Stadium in the expensive section, and at one point to make it look like it was taking off Yankees management gave a number of those seats only for the duration of the season to hand-picked insiders to make it look like the strategy was paying off.

    If I remember correctly the WWF/WWE might have even used that presentation tactic on more than one occasion, so I would not put anything past "House of Mouse" even though I never read such a report myself.

  8. Joonas's Avatar

    https://boundingintocomics.com/2019/03/13/new-reports-of-empty-theaters-at-captain-marvel-add-to-movies-controversy/

    Whether you choose to believe these people is your choice, but I certainly do.

    Edit. Don't expect big news sites to bring this up, Disney has enough power to prevent that.

    Updated 04-25-2019 at 10:02 AM by Joonas
  9. Joonas's Avatar

    We spoke with a movie theater manager who asked for anonymity. He told us they had “exactly 25 no shows for every showing of Captain Marvel on Thursday through Saturday.”

    The manager told us this was definitely abnormal, “It’s definitely not normal. People usually show up when they pay for tickets…I’m not sure what it is, we’ve seen big groups not show up before, but they get refunds.”

    I asked whether or not these tickets were purchased in bulk, but that information isn’t available, “I’m not sure if they were bought all at once because Fandango doesn’t give us that information, but exactly 25 no shows for every show is probably statistically impossible.”

    The manager would add, "I would say it’s someone trying to make the ticket sales look better than they really were."

  10. Blackflag82's Avatar

    Quote Originally Posted by RTM

    Would like to see that as well BUT I happen to know for a fact that in Major League Baseball when the PSL (personal seat license) nonsense started there were a BUNCH of unsold seats at the new NY Yankees Stadium in the expensive section, and at one point to make it look like it was taking off Yankees management gave a number of those seats only for the duration of the season to hand-picked insiders to make it look like the strategy was paying off.

    If I remember correctly the WWF/WWE might have even used that presentation tactic on more than one occasion, so I would not put anything past "House of Mouse" even though I never read such a report myself.

    I'm sure it happens, and I'm sure it can happen in different venues, but... Yankee stadium and wrestling matches are one off locations. And maybe Disney did that in some of the bigger cities as a form of advertising/driving up demand (and I'd expect that this might be where the verifiable reports would be), but we're talking about pretty small amounts overall. For it to have made any sort of real difference in ticket sales the math doesn't add up in any real way.

    If we were to just assume opening weekend which grossed $153 million among approximately 4300 theaters at $12-ish a ticket, then we're looking at around 13 million tickets. anything less than about a million and a half tickets doesn't affect opening weekend sales in a meaningful way. Never mind the logistical and bureaucratic headache of orchestrating something like this, but even if they had picked up 20% of the opening weekend sales, CM would have still been at or above movies like Ragnarok, Homecoming, Deadpool 2, the 1st Guardians (hardly flops). And if the opening sales were supposed to affect future ticket sales, you're still talking about a movie that by the end would be in the top 12 grossing marvel movies (removing 20% on all sales, though there is no way Disney's buying up tickets would affect sales to that degree). Nevermind that there would be theater owners and operators out there blowing the whistle on this (even anonymously) because the majority of their profit comes from concessions and they'd be losing a ton of money. Or is the theory that disney also bought popcorn for all of those empty seats?

  11. Blackflag82's Avatar

    Quote Originally Posted by Joonas

    Whether you choose to believe these people is your choice, but I certainly do.

    Yeah, I'm not in the habit of believing people I've never met just because they post on social media or believing "anonymous" sources from a blog post.


  12. Joonas's Avatar

    Quote Originally Posted by Blackflag82


    Yeah, I'm not in the habit of believing people I've never met just because they post on social media or believing "anonymous" sources from a blog post.


    Yeah, I'm sure all those photos people posted of empty showings were also faked...

  13. Blackflag82's Avatar

    Quote Originally Posted by Joonas


    Yeah, I'm sure all those photos people posted of empty showings were also faked...

    Are you talking about the images near the bottom of the blog post you linked? The one that has a guy talking about the 10:20 showing being empty but somehow that post is on a tweet posted at 7:20? Or did he mean 10:20 am when you know, fewer people go to the movies. Or maybe even...wait for it...he took a picture on a different day/time.

    Come on man, stop drinking the koolaid.

    You actually believe that Disney dropped upwards of 50 million dollars in ticket purchases to make CM moderately more successful than it would have already been, and the reason we don't hear about it is because disney is so powerful that it has managed to silence all the media outlets including one of its biggest competitors (NBC) who runs a ton of news media?

    the moon landing never happened either...

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  14. RTM's Avatar

    Well, with the movie showing worldwide in just a mere day we will know soon enough. I never put much faith in "Fandango" and online sales...people in seats, that's the measure of how well a movie is doing.

  15. Joonas's Avatar

    Quote Originally Posted by Blackflag82

    Come on man, stop drinking the koolaid.

    You actually believe that Disney dropped upwards of 50 million dollars in ticket purchases to make CM moderately more successful than it would have already been, and the reason we don't hear about it is because disney is so powerful that it has managed to silence all the media outlets including one of its biggest competitors (NBC) who runs a ton of news media?

    Wouldn't surprise me if Disney did, 50 million is peanuts to them if they can keep the public image of being "successful" with their films. This directly affects their stocks and keeps the investors happy. I hope you don't actually think Disney's main revenue is the movies, they are just big marketing ads for their merchandise.

    I'll guarantee you the MCU will falter after Endgame if they make Captain Feminist the lead of next generation. I wonder what excuses the Mouse has lined up already for that.

    I just can't wait to see the new upcoming CM2 movie.









    Said no one ever.




  16. Blackflag82's Avatar

    I look forward to CM 2, and pretty much anything mcu comes out with I'll be excited to varying degrees to watch. But I guess I'm no one since I don't buy into absurd conspiracy theories because a woman said something some fanboys didn't like.

  17. RaGe's Avatar

    The "Dark Knight Trilogy" are my favorite "super hero" movies, with "TDK" being a top 5 all-time movie. I watch all the super hero movies that come out, but nothing has come close to those movies, for me. The Dead Pool movies are definitely fun, though.

    I just finished watching my downloaded copy of Endgame. They really dragged it out. It probably could have been an hour shorter. Once it gets going though, it's a worthy movie. Good plot, action etc.

    VAGUE SPOILERS BELOW..


    And they had the balls to kill some main characters for real this time.

  18. Dave Hawksett's Avatar

    Watchmen has to be my favourite, followed by the Nolan Batman movies.

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  19. Joonas's Avatar

    Quote Originally Posted by Blackflag82

    I look forward to CM 2, and pretty much anything mcu comes out with I'll be excited to varying degrees to watch. But I guess I'm no one since I don't buy into absurd conspiracy theories because a woman said something some fanboys didn't like.

    Oh yes, I bet you supported those racist and sexist comments. It's just not the actress, the character of Captain Marvel itself is a joke. A rip off of Wonder Woman and Superman, but with a heavy feminist touch. CM has sucked for long a time (and the comic sales prove it), and CM is one of the most hated characters even among the hardcore Marvel fans.

    You might wonder why they still keep pushing the character and even give her big role in MCU? Because they could never ever admit that this bs ultra feminist character is hated universally, they think that if you forced it enough through peoples throats they have no choice but to like it.

    I think you are one of those biggest fan boys Blackflag, in your eyes Marvel can do no wrong. I bet you would be even thrilled by a Hawkeye stand alone movie, you know, the character that is as boring as watching paint dry and is based on certain outlaw who lived in 13th century England, real original Marvel.

  20. RaGe's Avatar

    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Hawksett

    Watchmen has to be my favourite, followed by the Nolan Batman movies.

    Ohhh, I forgot about Watchmen. That's definitely right behind the Nolan's for me.
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