This Super Smash Bros Ultimate Theory Uses The Blog To Predict The Remaining Fighters

There’s nothing that gets my mind racing like a good fan theory. When a community bands together to solve a mystery surrounding their favorite game or try to figure out what the developer is going to do next, the results can be truly amazing. A current example of this involves Super Smash Bros Ultimate, specifically the daily blog posts on the game’s official site.

Welcome to Blog Theory, in which community members have analyzed the blog posts to the point that they think they’ve figured out how many more characters will be added to the roster before launch. No joke. Here’s what they’ve figured out:

Two very dedicated Smash Bros fans, Sabi and DuckMeat, have put together two extensive Google Docs and made them public for other to follow along with. Sabi’s Doc is linked here, while Duck’s is here.

Using actual mathematical concepts that sound like they go far beyond my understanding, the two have figured out a method to game director Masahiro Sakurai’s madness, finding a pattern in what sorts of information are blogged about daily. To put it in the simplest terms, they’ve figured out how often characters are posted, what other types of posts are created, factored in the weekly music updates, and created a formula. With this information, they’re predicting that Super Smash Bros Ultimate likely has six or seven more characters coming to it before the game launches in December. 

Essentially, at the rate characters are profiled on the daily blog, if you run the formula to the game's December 7th launch date there are six more character profiles due to be blogged than there are current roster members. Depending on how quickly or slowly character profiles appear, this number could rise or fall, but right now six is the expected number of characters left to be revealed.  

Every blog post adds a new layer to Blog Theory. Take yesterday when Death’s Scythe was revealed, this was Sabi’s analysis:

(1/2) Alright, so last night's post was just an item.
This is noteworthy because it means this week will be a 2-fighter post week, but worry not! This isn't harmful so lon as we don't have multiple 2-fighter weeks in a row. Right now, this would lead to 6 fighters

— Sabi (@New_WabiSabi) September 27, 2018

(2/2) if we kept the pace going, which it still is. One 2-fighter week isn't much of a blow. If this is anything like July, we may even get a 4-fighter week soon, which would bring us up to the path of 7 remaining. If we get two fighters again next week, 5 will be likely

— Sabi (@New_WabiSabi) September 27, 2018

Every post that the Smash Bros site produces seems to fit into this theory, which makes this simply remarkable work. That this has gone through so many revisions and tweaks, holding through every single update we receive, is incredible. Obviously this is not 100% fact, but it’s a sound theory based on fact and mathematical predictions that really could clue us in on what to expect.

Also, the theory cannot predict who is coming or when the announcements will be made, this is simply a prediction of “this is how many more we have to think about.” It also doesn’t decipher how many of the remaining reveals and how many are Echo Fighters,

If you want to hear it straight from the theorists’ mouths: the main creators of the theory Sabi and Duck joined up with the fellows at GameXplain for a long discussion on the process, the overall theory, and some elaboration on a few counter arguments. They even dive into how the Nintendo Direct delayed by the earthquake in Japan is accounted for in the theory. Take a listen:

It’s a wild theory, but the more I think about it the more it makes sense. Not just because of the methods explained here, but also because the concept of a meticulously planned blog posting schedule is peak Masahiro Sakurai. The man’s been doing incremental updates for three games now, I’m thinking he’s got a handle on what gets posted when. I’m all for six or seven new characters, so hopefully Sabi and Duck are on to something here.

For more on Super Smash Bros Ultimate, check out our piece on who these new characters would be if we were choosing the roster. We’ve already got one right in Isabelle...even if we thought she’d be an Echo Fighter.