Overwatch League Week 5 Preview

As we gear up to head into the Blizzard Arena for Week 5, there’s a lot that is already certain going into this week of Stage 1 in the Overwatch League, but it's all of the things that remain uncertain that has electricity in the air. Thanks to a five-way tie for a final playoff spot, there are going to be some very important match-ups, and maps this weekend. Let's take a look at the action.

This, the second season of the Overwatch League, has had some weird scheduling -- and it’s unclear as to whether or not this new format is better or worse than that from the inaugural season yet -- that sees teams play only seven match-ups per stage, and only eight head-to-head matches happening this weekend. Which is why we’re talking about OWL previews on a Saturday, and not a Thursday.

Who's Playing?

With teams like the currently top-seeded New York Excelsior, and the San Francisco Shock already having played in all seven of their regular match-play games, they will be watching from the sidelines. A handful of teams do, however, come into Week 5 with six games under their belt, and three teams have two matches ahead of them over the next 48 hours, with plenty of playoff implications on the line.

Week 5 will see the winless Washington Justice, Dafran’s Atlanta Reign, and the Paris Eternal all playing twice. The Justice, after an abysmal showing through four weeks in Stage 1, are simply looking to prove they can win some matches, while both the Reign and the Eternal are in a very busy scuffle for the final few playoff spots.

Could Clutch a Berth

In the Overwatch League, teams are ranked by wins and losses in the Stage Play portion, and all tie-breakers are decided by map differential. The top eight teams in the overall league standings are invited to participate in the Stage Playoffs; a bracketed tournament with some good prizes on the line and, of course, the glory of being named the Stage 1 Champions.

There are five teams heading into week 5 with a 3-3 record, and the map differential that they’ve earned over the course of Stage 1 thus far isn’t very deep. So things are pretty wide open. The Guangzhou Charge currently hold the eighth and final playoff spot, with a 3-3 record and a +3 map differential. The furthest 3-3 teams from them are the London Spitfire, and Houston Outlaws that currently have a -1 map record. With a guaranteed four maps per head-to-head, that distance could possibly be erased entirely.

The Seoul Dynasty and Boston Uprising round out the other 3-3 teams fighting for a playoff berth in their final game. The Dynasty has an easier go of it this weekend, as they are going head-to-head with a fellow 3-3 squad in the floundering and inconsistent London Spitfires. Boston, on the other hand, have to beat a very strong Dallas Fuel team in order to have a fighting chance to play in the post-stage tournament.

Currently, in the eighth spot, the Guangzhou Charge have the hardest Week 5 ahead of them, as they have to cling onto their playoff hopes while going up against the undefeated Vancouver Titans. The ex-Runaways now Titans have the chance to overtake the NYXL for the top seed in the entire league, but may not be heading into this final week with a ton of confidence thanks to a shaky (but ultimately victorious) performance against the Chengdu Hunters last week.

Rounding Out The Postseason Bracket

Alongside the league-leading New York Excelsior, first-year expansion teams Vancouver Titans, and Toronto Defiant are the only other teams that have technically clinched playoff spots at this point. All three teams have had some close calls over the course of Stage 1 so far. Fans are very excited at the prospect of seeing the two brand new teams participate in some meaningful playoff games this early in their OWL franchise history.

The Philadelphia Fusion and Dallas Fuel are currently holding on to the fourth and fifth seeds, but at 4-2 with one game left to play, there could be a giant pile of teams sitting at 4-3 come Sunday afternoon.

We can’t very well sit here and describe all of the tie-breaking situations, because the map differentials can fluctuate up to four points per head-to-head. But we sure can make some predictions.

Who Will Make the Stage 1 Playoffs (We Think)

Ordered specifically in seed position, here are the eight teams we think will advance to the Stage 1 Playoffs in the 2019 Overwatch League Season:

Vancouver Titans^
New York Excelsior^
Philadelphia Fusion
Toronto Defiant^
Dallas Fuel
San Francisco Shock
Atlanta Reign
Boston Uprising

(^ - clinched a playoff berth)

For teams like the winless Los Angeles Valiant, the expansion Washington Justice (also winless at this point, with two games to play this weekend), and the lackluster Florida Mayhem, they're about to embark on what will feel like the longest break of their professional careers. Some of the teams that will miss out on the playoffs -- the LA Gladiators, Hangzhou Spark, Shanghai Dragons, Paris Eternal, and the Chengdu Hunters round out that list -- must change a large portion of their strategy, communication, or even roster, in order to regain some relevancy heading into Stage 2.

A lot can happen in the next 48 hours, which makes the final stretch of Stage 1 so very exciting. With only seven games per Stage in this new-look Overwatch League format, each of those match-ups has a very heavy weight attached to it. See the full schedule on the Overwatch League website.

Will you be tuning in to Week 5 of the Overwatch League? Who are you rooting for?